Ntiaj teb txiv lws suav muab tshuaj txhuam hauv 2020/2021

Most of the sector's growth is based on "low concentration" products
Two dynamic forces are currently driving the world trade in tomato pastes: firstly, the countries that have historically been processing countries are losing ground as they compete with the rest of the world; secondly, exports of "low-concentration" products are the only ones to record significant progress.

The most recent world trade estimates put the amount of tomato paste exported over the July 2020–June 2021 marketing year at around 3.46 million metric tonnes. While obviously slightly lower (-1 percent ) than the record level of operations reported the previous year (2019/2020, with 3.51 million mT), the volumes shipped last year appear to have capitalized significantly on the gain made during the Covid pandemic crisis. The 2020/2021 result is indeed 2.5 percent higher than the average of the three immediately preceding marketing years (2017/2018 to 2019/2020). However, although a comparison with the marketing years of the 2016/2019 period (excluding the record result of 2019/2020) shows an increase of nearly 5 percent , the 3.46 million mT traded last year also places 2020/2021 in the direct continuation of the progress recorded during those "pre-Covid" years. In other words, the 2020/2021 "score" is not yet outside the framework of "mechanical" progression, and it will therefore be necessary to wait for final results of the current 2021/2022 trading year – and probably the following ones – to know if the campaign carried out during the pandemic has really raised the average level of global dynamics or if it was only a one-off episode with no lasting effect on consumption habits on a global scale.

Kev ua tau zoo ntawm TOP10
Txawm li cas los xij, cov duab no tsuas yog qhia ib feem ntawm qhov tseeb ntawm kev lag luam txawv teb chaws. Ob qhov kev hloov pauv tau nyob hauv qab ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv cov txiv lws suav rau ntau xyoo, cov teebmeem uas tuaj yeem pom tau thiab zoo li yuav hloov lub ntsej muag ntawm peb txoj kev lag luam mus ntev, ob qho tib si kev lag luam thiab kev ua liaj ua teb.
Thawj qhov kev hloov pauv cuam tshuam txog kev faib khoom lag luam ntawm cov teb chaws uas yog cov thawj coj hauv ntiaj teb kev muab cov txiv lws suav. Hauv 15 xyoo dhau los, qhov sib koom ntawm TOP10 lub teb chaws (cov npe uas tuaj yeem sib txawv ntawm ib xyoos mus rau ib xyoos) tau poob qis, los ntawm ntau dua 96 feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2006/2007 mus rau tsawg dua 92 feem pua ​​​​hauv 2020/2021. Ntau qhov laj thawj thiab cov txheej txheem rau qhov kev hloov pauv no twb tau hais tawm hauv peb cov ntawv tshaj tawm, suav nrog kev nqis peev los ntawm qee lub tebchaws uas xav txo lawv txoj kev vam khom rau lwm qhov chaw thiab lawv cov kev siv nyiaj rau cov khoom siv sab nraud, kev ua tiav ntawm tus kheej- txaus los ntawm qee qhov lawv, thiab txawm tias qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev ua haujlwm tshiab thiab / lossis xa tawm lub teb chaws ntawm thoob ntiaj teb scene. Qhov poob qis yog qhov tseem ceeb thiab, txij li lub ncov mus txog xyoo 2006/2007, kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws ntawm TOP10 lub teb chaws tsuas yog nce ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo ntawm 2.3 feem pua, ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam uas tau loj hlob ntawm tus nqi ntawm 2.7 feem pua ​​​​ntawm ib xyoos. Nws yog qhov zoo li tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev nce siab hauv cov nqi, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau kev siv hluav taws xob thiab kev thauj khoom (hiav txwv thiab txoj kev), yuav ua rau cov kev txhim kho tsis ntev los no los ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev tsim khoom hauv zos thiab hauv cheeb tsam. Txawm hais tias tus txheeb ze kev sib cog lus ntawm cov chaw muag khoom siv rau lub lag luam thoob ntiaj teb uas tab tom txhim kho tam sim no (raws li qhov tsis paub meej tias qhov kev txhim kho no yuav ua tau), nws tau pab txhawb qhov kev sib tw ntawm kev sib tw ntawm cov neeg tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam.

The rise of "low concentration" products

The growing share of the world market that is "escaping" the hold of historical leaders of the sector weighs all the more heavily on the operations of these big players for the fact that the decline is coupled with a gradual but profound change in the nature of the tomato products that are being requested on the market. For the last ten years, world trade in paste with a soluble solids content between 12 percent and 30 percent (customs codes 20029031, 20029039) and above 30 percent (customs codes 20029091 and 20029099) has tended to stagnate, the former at around an annual average of nearly 1.28 million mT of finished products, the latter at around 1.34 million mT. In both cases, the average annual growth (CAGR) is close to zero. At the same time, the quantities of tomato pastes with a soluble solids content of less than 12 percent (customs codes 20029011 and 20029019) have increased significantly, from 320,000 mT of finished products in 2011/2012 to 520,000 mT in 2020/2021, which is an average annual rate of approximately 5 percent . "Low concentration" products are now experiencing strong development, which is also due to the technical qualities of viscosity, color, etc. that technological advances in processing have made possible. The result of this new orientation of the world market is a sluggish growth in the quantities of raw material mobilized annually for worldwide trade, specifically affecting the countries and companies whose activity is most based on international exchanges. 
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj kev lis kev cai, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm TOP10 kev xa tawm ntawm pastes (qhia hauv cov khoom siv raw sib npaug) nyob rau kaum xyoo dhau los tuaj yeem kwv yees tsawg dua 0.8 feem pua. Cov kwv yees li ntawm cov txiv lws suav tshiab koom nrog tau tshaj tawm tias poob los ntawm 17.2 lab mT mus rau 17.5 lab mT nyob rau lub sijhawm xav txog. Nyob rau hauv lwm yam lus, qhov nruab nrab soluble solids ntsiab lus ntawm paste lag luam thoob ntiaj teb zoo li tau nce zuj zus nyob rau hauv kaum ob lub xyoo dhau los, los ntawm ntau tshaj 28 feem pua ​​​​hauv 2009/2010 mus rau tsawg dua 27 feem pua ​​​​hauv 2020/2021. Qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm qhov kev xav tau los ntawm kev ua lag luam sib raug rau qhov txo qis li ntawm 6 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov khoom siv, thiab yog tias nws tsuas yog cuam tshuam rau ib feem ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam hauv cov txiv lws suav muab los ntawm TOP10 lub teb chaws ntawm kev lag luam, nws qhov kev cuam tshuam yog txawm li cas los ntsuas tau. nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no scale thiab ntawm lub xyoo caum dhau los.

This strong trend is currently focusing the growth of trade overall almost exclusively on low-concentration products. But, given the relative weakness of its contribution to the whole, both in terms of finished products and in terms of fresh equivalents, the segment is clearly not in a position to guarantee strong growth for the sector. On the one hand, the rise of low-concentration products, together with the relative stagnation of the other categories (28/30% and >30 feem pua), pab tswj tus nqi ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam ntawm qib qis heev. Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov txiv lws suav tshiab tseem tsis tshua muaj txiaj ntsig thiab tsis muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau lub sijhawm tam sim no ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov txiv lws suav tshiab absorbed los ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam thiab, los ntawm txoj kev, los ntawm kev ua sector tag nrho.

Qee cov ntaub ntawv ntxiv
Evolution ntawm exports ntawm lub ntsiab ua thiab exporting lub teb chaws.

Comparison of the average annual growth rates of exports of the different grades of paste, 

before and after 2011/2012: over the last nine years, the only segment to have shown 

significant growth is that of concentrated purées with a solids content of less than 12 degree Brix.